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3. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

In a three-way shootout there can be only one winner. Clint, Lee and Eli find themselves in such a situation...but are the odds even?

Clint never misses the mark. Lee hits his man 4 times out of 5, but Eli's record is not so promising - he only hits his target 50% of the time.

The rules? Only one, really: they take it in turn to shoot. So, whoever fires first, the question is: who stands the best chance of surviving?
 

Scroll down the page for the answer.


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Eli has the best chance of winning.

In the normal run of things, when any of them is equally likely to shoot first, then the probabilities of each surviving are:

Eli: approx 0.43
Clint: approx 0.25
Lee: approx 0.32

Eli further increases his chances if he decides not to shoot first, even if he could. The probabilities here are:

Eli: 0.5125
Clint: 0.2875
Lee: 0.2
 

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